Comment

In April, 61,140 mortgage approvals were recorded, seeing a 25.8% increase year-on-year. (Bank of England). While the Bank of England held the base rate at 5.25% following the meeting on June 20th, all reports are showing a positive market. This is backed up by Rightmove’s recent figures of buyer demand being up by 5% compared to this time a year ago.

In June, the housing market continued to show robust performance, unaffected by the upcoming General Election. In weeks 23-24 of 2024, UK house prices for sales agreed were recorded 6.3% higher than in January. Also, a 23% increase in listings was seen, rebounding strongly from the post-bank holiday period, with 36,000 properties listed. Year-to-date listings are now 9.1% higher than in 2023 and 7% above the averages seen in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

Nationally, the resilience of the market amidst the General Election highlights the underlying strength and stability of the UK property landscape, however, overvaluing remains a concern. At Nicol and Co, we use data-driven information to accurately provide strategic pricing to ensure our vendors achieve the best price in line with the market and buyer expectations.

The top news over the last month is that CPI inflation has finally reached 2%, a significant improvement from the over 11% seen in October 2023. This milestone is an underlying factor in the economy returning to a normal state and this stability is a positive sign for the future.

Local Market Roundup

Updates from the latest Land Registry statistics for year ending 31^st March 2024 show the total number of transactions recorded was 2,951, representing a 37% decline compared to the previous year. In Worcester, transactions fell by 38% to 1,261. Malvern saw 473 transactions, a decrease of 33%, and Droitwich experienced a 36% drop to 347 transactions.

In the WR Postcode area over the past year, the average sales price, encompassing both houses and flats, was £291,274. Houses, which accounted for 87% of sales, had an average price of £321,378, while flats, making up 13% of transactions, had an average price of £150,586.

Breaking it down by region, Malvern led the way with a 1% increase in average transaction value, reaching £318,082. Droitwich, however, saw a 2% decrease to £281,013. Worcester’s average transaction value remained stable at £257,537.

The increase in average sales price over the last five years is shown below:

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

Over the last 12 months, the WR postcode area saw an average rent of £859 per month for let properties, reflecting an 8% increase from the previous year. Of these properties, 41% were flats, averaging £717 per month, while houses rented for an average of £1,014 per month.

In Droitwich, the average rent for let properties was £775 per month, with flats averaging £619 and houses £1,032. Malvern saw an average rent of £903 for let properties, with flats fetching £846 per month and houses £969 per month. Meanwhile, Worcester’s average rent remained steady with an average of £846 per month.

Source: Dataloft Market Rental Analysis (rental data is limited and based on achieved rents for approximately 10-15% market share, depending on location)

National Market

According to HMRC, 90,430 sales occurred in April, marking the highest level since March 2023 and a 9.8% increase compared to last year.

Over the past four weeks, the number of sales being agreed has remained steady, 6% higher than the same period last year. Additionally, the average asking price for properties coming to market increased by 0.8% in May, reaching a new high of £375,131 (Rightmove).

In April, the average property price was £281,373, reflecting a 1.1% year-on-year increase and a 0.3% rise from the previous month (ONS). UK house prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in May, with the annual growth rate improving to 1.3% from 0.6% in April (Nationwide).

Economy

On June 19th, it was announced that CPI inflation in the twelve months up to the end of May was at 2.0%, finally reaching the government’s target. This is a decrease from the 2.3% recorded in April (ONS). This milestone, three years in the making, is a significant improvement from the over 11% inflation seen in October 2023 and is welcome news for all.

However, as anticipated, despite the positive economic news, the Bank of England announced at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on June 20th that the UK base rate will remain at 5.25%. This decision followed the announcement of a general election set for July 4th, indicating that there will be no chance of a cut in borrowing before August. The next meeting is scheduled for Thursday, August 1st, when it is hoped that the long-anticipated forecast will materialise.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also reported that GDP is estimated to have remained steady following a 0.4% increase in March.

Lettings Market

The ONS Price Index of Private Rents reported an 8.7% increase  in average private rents over the 12 months to May. This trend is reflected in HomeLet’s latest figures, showing that the average UK rent rose by 0.2% in May to £1,297, representing a 6.9% increase compared to the same period last year.

While Goodlord reported an increase of 11% in the average void period in May compared to last year, indicating a potential easing of demand-supply imbalance. Nicol & Co in areas Malvern, Droitwich, and Worcester, continue to observe robust demand. Our average enquiries for rental properties remain strong at 38 enquiries per property listing. If you’re considering property investment, reach out to our team for expert guidance and advice.

Market Insight

Whilst the market has seen a positive shift in the start of 2024, we understand that with the ever changing housing market, the continual economic pressures and the undoubtable changes in the political scope, the media will have plenty to talk about. This year is going to be ‘noisy’.

In providing you with this market update, we hope you can make clear, evidence based decisions to help support you in your property journey. Our team are always on hand to discuss the current property market, providing accurate information to empower your decisions.

I’m always eager to share insights as we navigate the ever-evolving market. If you have any questions for me directly, feel free to reach out through our website or by following us on our social media channels, which also contain useful market updates and information.